

Flooding due to heavy rainfall requires 2 conditions to be met: 1) heavy rainfall, and 2) the inability of the soil to absorb this rainfall. Only the first of these is addressed with the data and information provided on this website (http:// www.hazards.ca).
Land slope, elevation, the type of land surface (i.e. vegetation, pavement) and soil conditions (e.g. soil type, antecedent moisture content, frozen or non-frozen) will strongly influence the location and severity of flooding. For example, an identical rainfall total occurring with different soil conditions can lead to very different flood potentials. Within Ontario, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Conservation Authorities are responsible for forecasting where and when flooding is likely to occur and issuing flood warnings as required. The flood forecasts and warnings are based on guidance provided by the Meteorological Service of Canada weather forecasts and warnings. For more information on flood forecasts and warnings in Ontario, please refer to the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources website:
http:// www.mnr.gov.on.ca/ MNR/ water/ p767.html.
In Ontario, Environment Canada issues the following types of weather warnings related to heavy rainfall:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
One of the three criteria for issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Ontario is related to heavy rainfall. This type of Severe Weather Warning is issued in Ontario when one or more of the following is expected to occur (Environment Canada, 2001):
- Wind gusts of 90 km/ hour or more;
- Hail of 2 cm in diameter or larger;
- Rainfall of 50 mm or more in one hour OR 75 mm or more within 3 hours.
'DAYS WITH', 'EXTREME DAILY' AND 'DATE OF LAST OCCURRENCE' RAINFALL DATA
Data for the 'days with', 'extreme daily' and most recent 'date of extreme daily' rainfall graphics on this website ( http:// www.hazards.ca ) was extracted from Environment Canada's National Climate Data Archive. Only climate and weather observing stations with at least 20 years of rainfall record were used in the data analyses. Not all climate stations used in the analyses are still operating. For the 'date of last occurrence' maps, stations with data records ending prior to 1998 are indicated. The data is also available from the Environment Canada Climate Normals website (Environment Canada, 2003a):
http:// climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ climate_normals/ index_e.html
Note: The variation and frequency of heavy rainfall amounts over short distances is largely related to the track and scale of storm systems but can also be influenced by local factors which include topography and proximity to large moisture sources (i.e. the Great Lakes). The density of stations in the existing rain gauge measuring network may not be sufficient to capture all of these local variations in daily rainfall.
"ATMOSPHERIC HAZARDS IN ONTARIO" MAPS
FLOOD#1 - 24 HOUR PEAK (25 YEAR RETURN PERIOD) ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS (mm)
This contoured map refers to the estimated 24 hour rainfall amount (mm) that can be expected to be reached or exceeded once every 25 years, on average, for areas of south-central-eastern Ontario (Auld and MacIver, 2000). The 25 year return period estimated rainfall amount may also be described as the estimated 24-hour peak estimated rainfall amount that has a 1 in 25 chance of being reached or exceeded each year. The analysis is based on Ontario climate station data for each station's period of record up to and including 1993.
FLOOD#2 - TOTAL NUMBER OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA PUBLIC FORECAST REGION (1979-2004)
For the purposes of this Environment Canada analysis (MSC-Ontario Region, 2005d), a heavy rainfall event was considered to have occurred when rainfall of 50 mm or more in one hour or 75 mm or more within 3 hours was observed. This corresponds to the same rainfall thresholds included in Environment Canada's Severe Thunderstorm warning criteria. The heavy rainfall events for the period 1979-2004 were plotted by occurrence within each of the individual Environment Canada public forecast regions (for additional information on these regions, please refer to the Environment Canada (2005d) website:
http:// www.on.ec.gc.ca/ weather/ regions/ intro_e.html ).
Note: Care must be exercised when using this map as regional differences in heavy rainfall occurrence are not merely a function of severe weather climatology, but can also be greatly influenced by population, road density and distribution of volunteer severe weather observers. It is therefore more likely that the number of heavy rainfall events reported in a public forecast region with a higher density population/ road and observer network will be greater than in a region which has a lower density population/ road and observer network.
FLOOD#3, #4, #5 - AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH DAILY RAINFALL EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 25 MM (1971-2000)
These maps show the average annual frequency of days with 25 mm or more rainfall at climate stations in Ontario (#3 provincial overview, #4 southern Ontario, #5 northern Ontario) based on the 30 year climate normals period, 1971-2000. Only climate stations with rainfall records greater than 20 years within this period were included. Some stations may no longer be in operation.
FLOOD#6,#8,#9 - EXTREME DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)
The values plotted on these maps represent the extreme maximum daily rainfall (mm) recorded at climate stations in Ontario (#6 provincial overview, #8 southern Ontario, #9northern Ontario) over each climate station's period of record through 2002. Only stations with at least 20 years of rainfall record were included in the analysis. Some stations may no longer be in operation.
Note: Regional and local differences in extreme daily rainfall amounts may reflect varying length of climate station periods of record.
FLOOD#7 - MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME DAILY RAINFALL
Station locations are plotted by colour code for the most recent date of occurrence of record daily rainfall (the extreme rainfall amounts are plotted in Map #6). Only climate stations with rainfall records greater than 20 years were included in the analysis. For those locations where the record daily rainfall has occurred in recent years (1998-2002), the station location dots are plotted in red. Orange and blue dots indicate that the record daily rainfalls were recorded during the period 1988-1997 and prior to 1988, respectively. Stations where the data records end prior to 1998 are also indicated on the map with a '+' symbol. The most recent dates of occurrence (day-month-year) of record daily rainfalls in Ontario are listed in the EXCEL spreadsheet 'FLOOD-Extremerainfall.xls', as indicated in the DATASETS summary below.
FLOOD#10, #11, #12, #13 - PERCENT OCCURRENCE OF CONSECUTIVE 3-DAY (#10), 5-DAY (#11), 7-DAY (#12) AND 10-DAY (#13) WET PERIODS
(MAY-SEP; 1971-2000 AND STATION PERIOD OF RECORD)
Consecutive wet days are a count of the number of consecutive days with a measurable amount of precipitation, i.e. daily precipitation >=0.2 mm. For this analysis, counts of the number of consecutive 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-day wet periods were calculated annually during the warm season (May through September) over each selected station's period of record and for the period 1971-2000 (MSC-Ontario 2006). A 3-day consecutive wet period is defined as 3 straight days with a measurable amount of precipitation. Once a 3-day wet period is defined, the next potentially 3-day wet period starts on the next wet day. The 5-, 7- and 10-day consecutive wet day periods are similarly defined. Hence, if there were 15 consecutive days with measurable precipitation, the counts would be as follows: 5 occurrences of 3-day wet periods, 3 counts of 5-day wet periods, 2 counts of 7-day wet periods and lastly, 1 count of a 10-day wet period.
The consecutive wet day counts were then converted to percent occurrence over the period May 1 to September 30 of each year. Within the May-September period, there are:
51 possible occurrences of consecutive 3-day wet periods
30 possible occurrences of consecutive 5-day wet periods
21 possible occurrences of consecutive 7-day wet periods
15 possible occurrences of consecutive 10-day wet periods
Therefore, for example, there is a 50 percent occurrence of consecutive 5-day wet periods from May 1 - September 30 in a specific year if these periods occur 15 times during the 153 days from May 1 to September 30.
The percent occurrence of consecutive 3-day wet periods per year that were recorded during the warm season, May through September, during the 30-year climate normal period, 1971-2000 at climate stations in Ontario is shown in FLOOD#10 map (MSC-Ontario 2006). Similarly, maps showing the percent occurrence number of consecutive 5-day, 7-day and 10-day wet periods at Ontario climate stations during May to September, 1971-2000, are provided in FLOOD#11, #12 and #13 maps, respectively (MSC-Ontario 2006). Precipitation data used in the consecutive wet day analysis was extracted from Environment Canada's National Climate Data Archive, with a total of 55 stations analysed for Ontario. Not all climate stations used in the analyses are still operating. In some cases, station precipitation records were extended by joining records from neighbouring stations.
Each of the consecutive wet-day period maps provided on the website is interactive. Clicking on an individual station circle on the map will provide a station's historical annual time series of percent occurrence of consecutive 3-day (5-day, 7-day or 10-day) wet periods over the station period of record (MSC-Ontario 2006). These graphs can be used to visually examine whether a given climate station is experiencing a trend towards a greater or lesser number of continuous wet days over the period of record.
An equivalent analysis of the consecutive 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-day dry periods is provided on the "DROUGHT" section of the website ( http:// www.hazards.ca ).
FLOOD#14 - ANNUAL AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AT 70th PERCENTILE OR GREATER (DECILE ANALYSIS OVER STATION PERIOD OF RECORD)
Annual and seasonal precipitation data were arranged into annual and seasonal 'deciles' or tenths of the annual and seasonal precipitation distributions, respectively, over each station's long-term period of record (MSC-Ontario 2006a). A total of 55 stations were analysed for Ontario. For 49 of these stations, historical precipitation data was extracted from Environment Canada's National Climate Data Archive. For the remaining 6 stations (Beatrice 2, Geraldton A, Haliburton 3, Moosonee, Owen Sound MOE, Pickle Lake A) historical precipitation data was extracted from Environment Canada's special database of "adjusted" daily rain, snow and total precipitation amounts (Mekis and Hogg 1999; Environment Canada 2006), based upon the Environment Canada National Climate Archive historical station rainfall and snow ruler data. Separate adjustments were applied to daily rain and snow. For the rainfall analysis, corrections were made for each rain gauge type to account for wind undercatch, evaporation and gauge specific wetting losses. Corrections for "trace" amounts of rain were also added. For the snowfall analysis, snowfall density corrections specific to each location were applied to all snowfall ruler measurements. Corrections for "trace" amounts of snow were also added. Only climate and weather observing stations with at least 20 years of precipitation record were used in the data analyses. Not all climate stations used in the analyses are still operating. In some cases, station precipitation records were extended by joining records from neighbouring stations. For example, the "Haliburton 3" station precipitation data represents a station data join from three Haliburton climate stations, dating back to 1895.
For the purpose of this analysis, wet years are years when the precipitation (annual or seasonal) falls into the highest 3 deciles (i.e. the highest 30% of precipitation totals).
The annual precipitation totals were analysed over the calendar year, January-December, while the seasonal analysis was based on the seasons for each specific year being defined as:
Winter : December of previous year + January and February of given year
Spring: March, April and May of given year
Summer: June, July and August of given year
Autumn : September, October and November of given year
The precipitation analysis map provided on the Hazards website is interactive. Clicking on an individual station circle will provide a station's historical annual and seasonal time series of precipitation for each of the 55 selected sites over each station's period of record (MSC-Ontario 2006a). The wettest years or greatest 10% of precipitation totals in the station period of record (i.e. exceeding the 90th percentile or 10th decile) are plotted in purple, while years in the highest 9th and 8th deciles are shown in dark blue and blue, respectively. The remaining years over the station period of record where the annual (seasonal) precipitation is less than the 70th percentile are plotted in white. The 50th precipitation percentile value is also provided.